2014考研英語(yǔ)：閱讀素材分享（二）_跨考網(wǎng)

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　　Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?

　　The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.

　　Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.

　　Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (inconstant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.

　　One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.

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　　過(guò)去經(jīng)濟(jì)衰落的糟糕日子會(huì)不會(huì)重來(lái)?自從石油輸出國(guó)組織在3月同意減少原油供應(yīng)，原油的價(jià)格已經(jīng)從去年12月的不到10美元一桶上升到約26美元一桶。這次近3倍的漲價(jià)令人想起了1973年的恐慌，當(dāng)時(shí)油價(jià)上漲了4倍;以及1979―1980年的那一次，當(dāng)時(shí)的油價(jià)也上漲了近3倍。前兩次的石油恐慌都導(dǎo)致了兩位數(shù)的通貨膨脹和全球性的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。那么這次警告人們厄運(yùn)來(lái)臨的頭版新聞都到哪里去了呢?

　　本周伊拉克暫停石油出口，這又一次推動(dòng)著油價(jià)上揚(yáng)。強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭，加上北半球冬季的到來(lái)，有可能在短期內(nèi)使石油價(jià)格漲得更高。

　　然而，我們有充分的理由預(yù)期這次油價(jià)暴漲帶來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響不會(huì)像70年代那么嚴(yán)重?，F(xiàn)在多數(shù)國(guó)家的原油價(jià)格占汽油價(jià)格的份額比70年代要小很多。在歐洲，稅占了汽油零售價(jià)的4/5，因此，即使原油價(jià)格發(fā)生很大的波動(dòng)，汽油價(jià)格所受的影響也不會(huì)像過(guò)去那么顯著。

　　發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家對(duì)石油的依賴也比從前要少得多，因此對(duì)油價(jià)的波動(dòng)也就不會(huì)那么敏感。能源儲(chǔ)備、燃料替代以及能源密集型重工業(yè)的重要性的降低，都減少了石油消耗。軟件、咨詢及移動(dòng)通訊消耗的石油，比鋼鐵、汽車(chē)行業(yè)少得多。發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值中每一個(gè)美元所消耗的石油量比1973年少了近一半。國(guó)際經(jīng)合組織在其最近一期的《經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》中估計(jì)，如果全年油價(jià)均價(jià)22美元左右，與1998年的13美元一桶相比，這僅僅會(huì)使發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的石油進(jìn)口在支出上增加GDP的 0.25%―0.5%。這還不到1974年或1980年收入損失部分的1/4。另一方面，由于重工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移至一些新興石油進(jìn)口國(guó)，它們對(duì)能源可能更加敏感，也更可能會(huì)受到強(qiáng)烈影響。

　　另外一個(gè)不應(yīng)因油價(jià)上升而失眠的原因是，與70年代的上漲不同，這次油價(jià)上升的大背景不是普遍的物價(jià)暴漲及全球過(guò)旺的需求。世界上很多地區(qū)才剛剛走出經(jīng)濟(jì)衰落?！?a href="http://m.ivlnzgm.cn/kaoyan/jj/" target="_blank">經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家》的商品價(jià)格指數(shù)一年來(lái)總的來(lái)說(shuō)沒(méi)有什么變化。1973年的商品價(jià)格躍升了70%，而1979年也上升了近30%。

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